Week Three Picks

Ok, so I'm two weeks late getting started with this but I figured better late than never.  I have been doing the Peter King Challenge on SI so I'm going to use my record from the first two weeks on there.

Washington at Detroit
The woeful Lions have actually looked a lot less woeful this year.  They have a good young quarterback, a serviceable running back and an emerging defense.  The real key to the Lions this year is getting the ball to Calvin Johnson.  The only way they can do that is to be more balanced with the run game, force defenses to bring a safety down into the box and allow Johnson to get one on one match-ups.  With the Redskins a shell of their former selves, I think the Lions will finally begin their ascent from the basement of the NFL.
Pick: Detroit

Green Bay at St. Louis
The Aaron Rodgers Era has begun.  He proved last year that he has what it takes to lead the Cheese-heads to the promised land and has helped relieve the sting of Brett Favre becoming a Viking.  Ryan Grant is back to his old self and Greg Jennings is quickly becoming one of the elite wide receivers in the league.  On the other side of the ball, the Rams are no longer the greatest show on turf.  Green Bay handles this one easily and calms fans who are steaming after losing last week to the Bengals.
Pick: Green Bay

San Fransisco at Minnesota
Adrian Peterson is the most naturally talented running back in the NFL.  Brett Favre is still good.  Percy Harvin looks to be right there with Mark Sanchez for the lead for rookie of the year.  But don't count out San Fransisco.  Coaching and long runs by Frank Gore turn out to be the difference for SF in this one.
Pick: San Fransisco

Atlanta at New England
Tom Brady will return to form this week but Bostons other golden boy, Matt Ryan, comes home to show he's a force to be reckoned with.  The combination of Ryan running back Michael Turner, tight end Tony Gonzales and wide receiver Roddy White has been a handful for both teams Atlanta has played this year.  The Hoody will do all he can to keep New England in this one, but look for Atlanta to flex some muscle in this one.
Pick: Atlanta


Tennessee at New York Jets
Although their record doesn't show it, Tennessee is not a one hit wonder.  They are backing up last years strong showing with another one this year.  They almost pulled a win from the Steelers to open the season and lost last week to an emerging Houston team.  The Jets are looking smarter and smarter each week with the move up the draft to select Mark Sanchez.  The leading candidate for rookie of the year has shown why Rex Ryan believed in him enough to trade up in the draft to take him earlier than most pundits believed he would go.
Pick: New York Jets

Kansas City at Philadelphia
This one seams easy on the surface but I think the Chiefs have something for the ailing Eagles.  The Eagles are hurting right now with the loss of McNabb, but they are still a scary team.  DeSean Jackson just might be the second most dynamic, small statured receiver in the league.  I think that Kansas City will keep this one close, but they just don't have the firepower to match up with Philadelphia.
Pick: Philadelphia

New York Giants at Tampa Bay
The Giants were a trendy Super Bowl pick this preseason.  While they've shown some flashes of brilliance, they didn't look as good against the over rated Cowboys.  Even though Tony Romo turned the ball over four times on their own side of the field, the Giants could only muster field goals against the leagues worst defense.  Tampa Bay's youth movement will take time to gain traction but I think the Giants will be too strong for Tampa Bay.  Look for a close game here.
Pick: New York Giants

Cleveland at Baltimore
The semi-annual Cleveland vs. Used-to-be Cleveland battle is a no brainer this year.  The Joe Flacco/Ray Lewis led Ravens are no longer just a smash-mouth, run first team.  They can also beat you through the air as the Chiefs learned this year.  Cleveland will still stack the box and force Flacco to beat them through the air.  He will.
Pick: Baltimore

Jacksonville at Houston
Maurice Jones-Drew is a bowling ball. I don't mean he's fat, but tackling him as been described as trying to tackle a bowling ball.  He's facing a team that doesn't fare too well against the run.  Although I picked Houston to win this game in my Peter King Challenge, I've changed my mind.  I think Jacksonville finally gets on track this week.
Pick: Jacksonville


New Orleans at Buffalo
Drew Brees is on pace to throw 5,352 yards and 72 touchdowns.  It's hard to believe that Brees accomplishes as much as he does with so little help.  He has no true playmakers at the running back position or wide receiver position.  Marques Colston is back this year but has not put up the same numbers he did his first two years.  Some may argue that Jeremy Shockey is a playmaker at TE, but I'm not convinced he's back to his true form.  I like the Bills to bring the Saints back to earth this week.
Pick: Buffalo

Chicago at Seattle
As with most NFL teams, as the starting quarterback goes, so goes the team.  Normally that wouldn't be a big deal.  But when the quarterback is as inconsistent as Jay Cutler has been this year, it's a huge deal.  Seattle is flying under the radar, but has a fairly good thing going in the rainy city.  Look for Seattle to squeak one out against the jet-lagged Bears.
Pick: Seattle

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Cincinnati got a great win last week but needs to bring their A-game this week against a very good Pittsburgh team.  Look for Pittsburgh defense to shut down anything Cincy tries to throw at them this week.  This is a statement game for Pittsburgh.
Pick: Pittsburgh

Denver at Oakland
Well, the Raiders can run the ball but that's about it.  JaMarcus Russell looks like a complete bust in the making.  Sure he can throw the ball 70 yards and can scramble when he needs to.  But a sub 40% completion percentage will not cut it in the NFL, first overall pick or not.  Kyle Orton may not be Denver's answer to the long standing question:  Will anyone ever be as good as Elway was?  But I think he's sneaky-good.  He does just enough to keep the team in it and doesn't make too many mistakes.  This one could go either way but I say that Oakland actually pulls out a win behind a strong rushing effort.
Pick: Oakland

Miami at San Diego
The NFL is a very fast league, physically and mentally.  They are also quick to adapt.  The "wildcat" offense, erroneously named, looks like it might have actually run its course in one short year.  At least, that's the picture so far this year.  If Miami get's down early, look for rookie Pat White to get a lot of looks in the offense.  I think Miami will line Pat up in a single wing look and use the extra blocker to run sweeps to the left and right to get the Fins back in it.  Too bad it just won't be enough.
Pick: San Diego

Indianapolis at Arizona
The Colts are wishing they would have looked for more wide receiver help this off-season after having to sign Hank Baskett off the street.  With Anthony Gonzales out for a while, teams will bracket Reggie Wayne with a cornerback and safety, eliminating his big play potential.  The Colts will have to look to their running game to get things going and I just don't see that happening this week.
Pick: Arizona

Monday Night Football
Carolina at Dallas
A billion dollars might buy you a huge stadium, the largest replay screen imaginable and camera coverage of every single punt that comes near it, it doesn't buy chemistry.  Dallas looks like a broken team.  While I think the Panthers are a much better cohesive unit, Dallas still has plenty of play makers. This game is being billed as the battle of the maligned quarterbacks, but I think this game will be won or lost at the line of scrimmage.  Whichever team can stop the other's running game will come out on top.  As bad as I hate to say it, I think Dallas has the edge in this category.  However, I'm playing Homer this week as i just can't see Carolina going 3-0.  My prediction is Tony Romo throws a late interception that allows Carolina to win by a field goal.
Pick: Carolina

Last Week (12-4)

Overall (21-11)


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